Saturday Severe Weather Outlook 7/29/2023

The Storms Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for Severe weather around most of the county on Saturday. 

Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over southern New England into the Mid Atlantic states on Saturday. Damaging gusts are the primary hazard. Widely scattered severe storms are also possible over the north-central Great Plains late Saturday into Saturday night.

The upper-level ridge centered over the Divide will amplify on Saturday. Some amplification of the cyclonic flow aloft over the Northeast is also expected. At the surface, a frontal boundary will continue to sag southward within the Plains into the Northeast. This front will likely become more diffuse with time, however. Farther west, modest moist upslope flow will occur in the central/northern High Plains behind the boundary.

Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop by afternoon either along the front or along a surface trough near the Blue Ridge. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, strong surface heating and a very moist boundary layer will support moderate to strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). The greatest values will likely occur within central/eastern Virginia into perhaps the Delmarva. Farther north, more limited heating and weaker mid-level lapse rates will limit overall destabilization. With the amplifying upper-level pattern, moderate mid-level winds will exist as far south as the northern Mid-Atlantic and decrease fairly rapidly to the south. That being said, the overlap of the most buoyant air and the greater deep-layer shear will not be spatially broad. Given the degree of buoyancy, damaging downburst winds are the expected primary threat with isolated large hail possible with initial storm development.

A complicating factor in the forecast will be the timing and location of an MCV moving out of the Great Lakes region. Depending on where this feature is located, an area of greater mesoscale shear and storm coverage could develop within a zone from central Virginia into the Delmarva. Confidence remains too low for an increase in wind probabilities.

For Rowan County the main threat will be possible damaging winds. Very little rainfall accumulation is expected unless you happen to be under one of these isolated showers and storms. Rowan County Weather will continue to keep you updated and provide forecast updates into the day on Saturday.