Concern building for Severe Weather late Sunday into early Monday
As we wrap up the day on Easter Sunday the weather conditions around the county and the area are likely to become very unstable. Please take a few minutes to read this post so you can prepare as the severe weather will be occurring at a time when most are sleeping, especially with the current situation we are finding ourselves in with stay at home orders and other methods to protect against the Coronavirus. The Storms Prediction Center has us under a slight risk for Severe Weather for late Sunday into early Monday. With an enhanced risk to our west. I will continue to monitor updates from the Storm Prediction Center to see if the threat shift east toward us over the next 24 - 36 hours.
On the front end of this system there will be pockets of heavy rain. This will cause suturation of the soil and weakening of root systems with trees. That could lead to downed trees and power lines on the back side of this system when the winds have the potential to be damaging. The biggest threat for excessive rainfall is in the mountains but locally some areas in the county could see localized flooding with pockets of heavy rainfall.
We will begin to see light isolated rain showers move into the area and the county early Sunday around sunrise. Rainfall will increase in intensity as we move through the day and evening on Sunday.
Rainfall accumulation totals will be around an inch around the county. Most of this rainfall will occur from around 4 pm Sunday afternoon to around 7 am Monday morning. This is what will increase the chances of some localized flooding. Mainly because the rate will be faster than the soil can soak up the moistures.
The tornado threat with this system is higher than I have seen in some time. Especially for areas between Interstate 77 and Interstate 85. Please take this message seriously as the most increased danger for a tornado with this system will be between 4 am to 8 am Monday morning. Please make sure you have some way to get weather alerts on your phone or a weather radio. You be awakened by the alert but it could also save your life.
The chance for strong super cells to move through the county is elevated as well during this same time frame Monday morning. Super cells are the storms that get really high in the atmosphere that have increased chances for hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning and isolated tornadoes.
Wind gust with this system could be around 50 mph as the worst part of the system moves through. There is a very wide swath with these gust. This of course increases the chance for downed trees and power lines around the county.
Impacts for this system include
- A few tornadoes could occur, most likely brief and weak. However, I cannot rule out the development of a significant tornado causing a long track of structural damage.
- A line of thunderstorms looks likely to cross the area. Swaths of tree, power line, and structural damage may occur.
- A few storms embedded within the line could produce hail of quarter to golf ball size.
- A few thunderstorms could occur as a warm front lifts across the region. Frequent lightning will occur along a subsequent line of storms
- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will occur with a warm front. Brief torrential rain will accompany a subsequent line of strong thunderstorms.
The National Weather Service has proved this impact chart below concerning the level of impacts expected across the area and county.
I will continue to monitor the model data as it comes in over the next 24-36 hours and make any changes to the forecast to keep you updated throughout the weekend. Please make sure to look for updates here on the website as well as on all of my social media platforms. As always thank you for following Rowan County Weather.