2019 - 20 Long Range Winter Forecast

It’s Halloween and that can only mean one thing here at Rowan County Weather. It’s time to reveal the Long Range Winter Forecast! You may have already read that NOAA is predicting that most of the country will have an above average winter season in terms of temperatures and average precipitation. The question you have likely been asking is “What does that mean for Rowan County North Carolina?” 

As you can see from the graphic above. The area of the country with the best chance for average temperatures is the upper Mississippi Valley, Western Great Lakes and the Great Plains. Here in Rowan County we are expected to have above average temperatures for the upcoming Winter Season. 

The graphic above shows how a majority of the northern portions of the country will likely see wetter-than-average chances for the winter season. Here in Rowan County our long term conditions seem to favor average conditions for precipitation over the winter season.

One of the things I like to consider when making my long range winter forecast is what we have experienced for the last 20 seasons. I use this to help me compare and contrast previous winter seasons. As you can see from the data above our average temperatures during the winter over the past 20 seasons has been in the mid to upper 40’s.  For the winter season, data is recorded from December to February during what is known as Meteorological Winter.  During this period the average temperature is recorded by taking the sums of all daily high and low temperatures for the period and then dividing by the days in the period. I am forecasting our average temperature for this upcoming winter season at 43º. I am basing this on the expectation that we will have some periods during the winter months that will keep high temperatures in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and  lows during  these periods could be in the teens to low 20’s. 

The graphic above shows how over the past 20 winter seasons here in Rowan County that we have seen snowfall accumulations of 0 to around 10 inches. Based on the long range conditions keeping us with average precipitation and above average temperatures for the winter season, I am expecting we will see more events with a cold rain and less events with snow. My biggest concern is  that we could see events with icing rather than rain or snow. However, it is difficult to forecast the possibility of ice accumulation. As far as snowfall is concerned for this winter season I am forecasting 3-5 inches of snowfall for the county. 

Historically January is our snowiest month here in the county. So if you like to play the averages you could expect to see snow in January. It is almost impossible to say exactly when and even if it will snow this winter here in Rowan County. 

The one thing I can tell you for sure is whatever happens this winter, Rowan County Weather will be right here to keep you updated with the latest forecast and conditions. As always thank you for following Rowan County Weather