Tropical Storm Dorian Tuesday 8/27/19 Update

Tuesday, August 27, 2019 - 4:08pm

All eyes continue to  be on Dorian. As of the latest track. The center of Dorian has shifted further north bringing the track further north as well. By this weekend Dorian could be making landfall along the Florida coastline based on the latest guidance. 

 

Here are the latest details on the storm.

Dorian moved directly across St Lucia resulting in a significant disruption of the center of the storm. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft flew into the storm and had difficulty identifying a clear cut center of circulation in the storm. A pronounced pocket of dry air has moved into the southeastern quadrant of the storm that will cause some weakening.  

The initial track of Dorian continues to remain west northwest with some change to the track form this time yesterday. A low currently located east of the Bahamas has weakened and should allow the ridge associated with the low to weaken over the next 3 to 4 days. This will likely allow Dorian to take a short lived northwestward turn during the day on Thursday before turning back to a west northwest track heading into Friday. How quickly all of this occurs will depend heavily on an upper level low that is expected to develop as we move through the remainder of the week. 

Dry Air is currently the biggest enemy of Dorian. Interaction with the mountainous terrain of St Luicia will likely have an effect on any significant development over the next 24-48 hours. Model data does indicate that the storm has a favorable chance of strengthening over the next 3-5 days. 

Key Messages as of this time for the storm

1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY AND IN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

2. HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES, PUERTO RICO, AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

3. THE THREAT OF WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS LATER THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS, THE BAHAMAS, AND FLORIDA IS INCREASING. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AND ENSURE THAT THEY HAVE THEIR HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE.

4. UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK REMAINS HIGHER THAN USUAL DUE DORIAN'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO.

I will continue to provide updates over the remainder of the week right here and on social media concerning the track of Dorian and how it may or may not impact Rowan County. For now the best plan of action is to stay weather aware and continue to follow updates concerning this storm. As always thank you for following Rowan County Weather!

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