Monday 8/26/19 2 p.m. Look at Tropical Storm Dorian

Monday, August 26, 2019 - 2:21pm

The social media buzz is beginning to build concerning what is currently Tropical Storm Dorian. Questions of course are being asked of what is the track of the storm and will it possibly impact us here in Rowan County. This is the first of several blog updates I will provide concerning Dorian and what to expect as far as the track and if the storm will impact Rowan County. The storm still has a lot of time and ocean between itself and The United States Coast. As of right now the track has the storm southeast of Miami by the end of the week. Should the track hold there is no reason to believe we would not likely see some impacts from the storm here in Rowan County as we move into early next week. The thing to remember is there is still a lot that could happen to impact this storm over the next 5 to 7 days. 

Key Messages for the storm at this point are

1. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, WHERE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS, AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. LUCIA. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REFER TO ADVICE FROM LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

2. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM MARTINIQUE TO ST. VINCENT, INCLUDING BARBADOS, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

3. THE RISK OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM WIND AND RAINFALL HAS INCREASED FOR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AND TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

4. ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM DORIAN IN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA LATER THIS WEEK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DORIAN'S CONVECTIVE AND OUTFLOW PATTERN HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE, WITH A NARROW OUTFLOW CHANNEL NOW APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE ALONG WITH AN INTERMITTENT MID-LEVEL EYEWALL FORMING THAT QUICKLY ERODES DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  ON WEDNESDAY, DORIAN IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD WHICH COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PASS NEAR OR BETWEEN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BY LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN DORIAN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS.

The best way to prepare at this point is to follow the Ready, Set, Go Method. Now is the time to simply stay weather aware. There is no need to get ready here in Rowan County at this point as there is still so much uncertainty and time with this storm for plenty to change. If the storm were to impact Rowan County we are looking at early next week. Should the track begin to show a possibility of the storm moving through the area. We would be able to forecast that by the weekend. I will of course keep you updated right here and on all of my social media outlets. As always thank you for following Rowan County Weather!

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