Update on Snowfall for Saturday

Confidence continues to build for snow here in Rowan County on Saturday. We will go through a brief transition on Friday evening and early Saturday before it becomes all snow. Let's take a look at the latest.

I am expecting this to start as all rain on Friday evening with snow mixing in as we go through the evening. 

During the overnight hours on Saturday morning I expect all of the precipitation to become snow. The real issue early on will be the soil temperatures. As of right now the soil temperatures around the county are at 50º So any snow that falls early will melt and not stick. This will keep accumulations down. 

The NAM model is currently showing a chance of 1 to 3 inches around the county as a possibility. I feel fairly confident in the NAM readings at this point.

The GFS Model is predicting around 3 inches of snow in the county on Saturday. Again I am fairly confident in this model at this point as well.

The European Model is still having some issues but is slowly starting to come in line with the other models. The European Model is predicting 4 to 7 inches of snow around the county on Saturday. Still a bit high but trends are starting to line up with all of the models.

We have around a 40% chance of seeing 2 inches of snow in the county based on probability maps.

So with all of that said I am forecasting a 40% chance of snow on Saturday with accumulations of around 1 - 2 inches in the county. I will continue to adjust the totals as we get closer to the event. Please keep in mind that I start out conservative with these winter weather events and slowly raise my totals up as they are warranted. It is likely I could raise the totals again before the end of day on Friday as the winter storm moves closer to the area. 

Keeping the snow meter at a 4 for now. Could raise it again if totals continue to increase.

I will provide more updates over the next 48 - 72 hours right here and on social media. As always thank you for following Rowan County Weather!