70's for Sunday and Snow by next weekend?

Saturday, December 1, 2018 - 9:33am

As you know I am not a fan of Long Range Forecast. However, sometimes those forecast start to paint a picture that you need to monitor closely. While we deal with rain and highs in the 70's next weekend we could be dealing with our first real bout of Winter Weather. Keep in min we are a week out and things can and likely will change so this is going to be a very fluid forecast for the first half of next week. Here is where we stand today.

 

As of now models are indicating what will either be a wintry mix of rain and wet snow for the entire event or rain changing over to all snow as we move through the weekend. The accumulations are a bit all over the place as of now. Keep in mind the models don't do a good job of differentiating between what would be rainfall accumulation and what would be snowfall accumulation. 

 

 

The European model above is showing the county with a chance of 3-6 inches of snowfall from the event. I believe this to be a bit high based on the fact that soil temperatures could be a bit warm for the snow to stick to the ground right away. It may have to snow for a few hours before the snow really starts to stick. This would of course lower the totals. 

 

 

The Mean Forecast (a combination of what all the models are forecasting) is showing the county with a range of 1-2 inches of accumulated snowfall. This would seem more likely based on current soil conditions and the time timing of when the moisture would arrive with cold air in place. Again keep in mind this is an event tat around a week out and I can not stress enough that this forecast will likely change several times over the first half of the week. I have noticed the trend over the past few days in the models and it continues to show a chance for some wintry weather here in the county next weekend. I will keep you updated right here and on my social media outlets as we move closer to next weekend. As always thank you for following Rowan County Weather!

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