Severe Weather is possible this evening
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As we prepare for our 4th straight day of rainfall in the county. We are also preparing for possible severe weather later this evening. I will provide details on the potential impacts as I go through this post with you. Let's start with the arrival of the rainfall in the county. Storms should start to move into the western areas of the county around 9pm this evening. These storms could be strong to severe.
Helicity values will be a little elevated as the storms move through the county. This essentially means there is likely to be rotation in these storms as they pass through the county this evening. It is possible we could see a quick spin up from a tornado. I think the risk will be low but it is something we need to keep an eye on as these storms move through this evening.
Significant Tornado Parameters will be at around a 1 this evening. Again I think this will keep the tornado threat low but still worth keeping an eye on.
There is a low risk for Supercell's developing tonight over the county. These would be strong thunderstorms that would likely bring lots of lightning and thunder. The risk would be possible for small hail to develop in these storms as well.
The potential for some updrafts in these storms certainly support the chance of some small hail occurring when these storms move through the county this evening.
Accumulation totals for this evening could be anywhere from a half of an inch to three quarters of an inch of rainfall by midnight around the county. I will of course monitor the radar and models throughout the day. Updates will be provided right here and on social media as well. Impacts for the county will be as follows.
Strong to Severe Thunderstorms - Moderate Risk
Hail Low Risk
Localized Flooding Moderate Risk
Tornado Threat Low Risk
Stay safe and weather aware this evening. As always thank you for following Rowan County Weather!